Nifty99000 100%

Sensex99000 100%

Article rating: 5.0
Article rating: 5.0
Article rating: 5.0
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: 4.7
Article rating: 3.7
Article rating: 3.7
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: 4.0


’Assembly polls, crude oil, developments at trade front crucial for equity mkts this yr’

Author: PTI/Friday, September 21, 2018/Categories: Economy

’Assembly polls, crude oil, developments at trade front crucial for equity mkts this yr’

New Delhi - Trends in crude oil prices, domestic political dynamics, global interest rates and developments at the international trade front would be important factors impacting the equity market movement in the near term, say experts.

Of late, rupee woes, high crude oil prices, unabated foreign fund outflows and escalating trade tensions between the US and China have dampened the market sentiment.

Investors would closely watch assembly elections in some key states scheduled later this year, they added.

According to Jagannadham Thunuguntla, Senior VP and Head of Research (Wealth) at Centrum Broking, Indian markets are facing multiple headwinds such as all-time low rupee, rise in bond yields and rise in crude oil prices leading to vulnerability of Indian macros.

"Accentuating the volatility, we are in a politically charged up year with string of state assembly elections and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. All these factors will keep upsides of Indian markets capped," Thunuguntla said.

The 30-share BSE benchmark index has gained 9 per cent so far this year. It is currently trading at 37,121 level.

"At domestic level, earnings recovery led by demand improvement across segments will be the main trigger. Globally, easing of trade war related concerns, fall in crude prices will be very important triggers for the market," said Teena Virmani, Vice President-Research, Kotak Securities.

Samco Securities & StockNote Founder & CEO Jimeet Modi said, "Key triggers to watch out for would be global interest rates, international trade disruptions due to tariff wars, currency cross-currents, inflationary expectations and domestic political dynamics would be important events impacting the markets."

State elections this time would be the key event that the market will watch for before taking any significant direction, he added.

Markets scaled its lifetime peak this year, with the benchmark Sensex hitting its all-time high level of 38,989.65 on August 29.

On the trigger for the market going ahead, Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services said, "Firstly, the world financial market has to stabilize with some cure in trade and currencies volatility. Unless, if this continues we will have to absorb the real impact of trade and currency war over the next 12 months.

"Along with that, the global bond yield has to calm down. Only post this, India will be able to experience the real benefits of outperformance which is currently hidden under the muted performance of the world equity."

"Strong domestic inflows and corporate earnings will be the key triggers for the market going forward," said Rahul Sharma, Senior Research Analyst, Equity99.

On the outlook for the market for year-end, Nair said, "In 2018, performance of main indices like Nifty and Sensex has been very skewed. It is not reflecting the reality of the muted broad market with negative returns. The strength of the market has been decided by some handful set of stocks and sectors. This trend may continue throughout the year, as indicated by an increase in the market risk with spike in  yield, USD/INR and selling by FIIs."

"Sensex could trade in the range of 35,000 to 35,500 and Nifty in the range of 10,500 to 10,800," Jimeet Modi said.

"The fall principally will germinate from the fact that the markets are overvalued and lot of optimistic expectations are built into," he added.

On the headwinds of the market, Virmani said, "Increasing tensions on trade war front along with likely strengthening of dollar vis-a-vis other currencies and rising crude prices may hamper the markets adversely."

Print Rate this article:
No rating

Number of views (250)/Comments (0)

rajyashree guha


Other posts by PTI
Contact author

Leave a comment

Add comment



Ask the Finapolis.

I'm not a robot
Dharmendra Satpathy
Col. Sanjeev Govila (retd)
Hum Fauji Investments
The Finapolis' expert answers your queries on investments, taxation and personal finance. Want advice? Submit your Question above
Want to Invest



The technical studies / analysis discussed here can be at odds with our fundamental views / analysis. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Consultants Limited. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor Karvy Consultants nor any person connected with any associate companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned in this document. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associate companies is required to disclose his/her individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Consultants Ltd. This report is intended for a restricted audience and we are not soliciting any action based on it. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities, or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities.

Subscribe For Free

Get the e-paper free