Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is never economical with his stock market gyan, neither is he known to pull his punches, whether in private or public. At a special ‘investor summit’ held to mark the 15th anniversary of the now Mukesh Ambani-owned business television network CNBC-TV18 the storied investors somewhat shocked the audience by suggesting that in the next 15 years, Nifty, yes the Nifty now hovering around 8500 could multiply 15 times to reach levels of 125,000.
You can watch the full interview here.
The reasons for his optimism are as follows.
- Fifteen years ago the Nifty was 850 and today it is 8500. So, the Nifty has progressed 10 times in the last 15 years. If the outlook for India, which is much better for the next 10 years than the growth in the past 10 years, with increasing investor participation , in the next 10 years, the Nifty can even grow 15 times. The growth that we have had in the value of the Nifty in the last 10 years will be far exceeded in the next 10 years.
- A lot of countries are facing both structural and cyclical challenges. India is having an uptick both structurally and cyclically.
- India has the skill, demographic dividend, the size. It has a perfectly balanced economy. It has all the ingredients-- the vegetables, ghee, the vessel, the masala, the fuel, and now, an able cook in Narendra Modi.
- Modi is an instrument of change; he is not the change. The most remarkable thing of his first 180 days is that he has decided to do things at a measure and pace which is possible.
- Apart from the economic matters it is heartening to know that we have someone in the government who takes pride of India. Until today, we had a government run basically by a foreigner from Italy. Today, you have Indians who are running the government, who have a feeling for this country, who feel proud that we have scientist and go to Mars, it means something.
The downsides to his prediction: That Modi wouldn’t have a 10-year run in office; and a nuclear-armed, yet broken State of Pakistan in our neighbourhood.