Nifty99000 100%

Sensex99000 100%

Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
Article rating: No rating
RSS

News

What does monsoon mean for India?

Author: Anup B P/Wednesday, May 23, 2018/Categories: Commodities

What does monsoon mean for India?

The monsoon is a lifeline of the Indian economy. Being an agrarian economy, agriculture contributes around 16 per cent to the country’s GDP. Most of the farmlands in India are rain fed and directly depend on the monsoon for a good yield. Good cultivation would mean higher farmers’ income and higher purchasing power, which in turn would boost consumption in the rural economy. On the other hand, deficit rainfall would reduce crop production, decrease farmers’ cash-flow and increase food inflation.

India receives rain under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon and Northeast Monsoon. The southwest monsoon enters India through Kerala on June 1 every year.

Since 2000, India received deficient rains in 2014 and 2015, which considerably reduced agriculture production, effecting prices of essential commodities and spiking inflation. From 2016, the country has been receiving normal monsoon rains, bringing relief to the agriculture sector.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in its first monsoon forecast for 2018 released in April projected rainfall to be 97% of LPA (Long Period Average from 1951-2000 is 887 mm) with an error of +/-5%. On the other hand, private forecaster Skymet Weather said monsoon would be 100% of LPA. According to IMD, if the total rainfall is less than 90% of the LPA, it is considered as a drought year while 90-96% of the LPA is considered below normal rainfall. Rainfall in the range of 96%-104% of the LPA is considered to be normal, 104-110% of the LPA is above normal, and more than 110% of the LPA implies excessive rainfall. As per IMD, monsoon will reach Kerala on May 29.

Though India is a leading producer of commodities, not all farm commodities are dependent on the monsoon. Kharif sowing activities for grains, cereals, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugar coincides with the monsoon season. But some of these are also imported. Yet, the country awaits the monsoon and hopes for a good distribution, which would decide the fate of many in India.

The author is a fundamental research analyst at Karvy Comtrade Limited

Print Rate this article:
3.0

Number of views (213)/Comments (0)

rajyashree guha

Anup B P

Other posts by Anup B P
Contact author

Leave a comment

Name:
Email:
Comment:
Add comment

Name:
Email:
Subject:
Message:
x

Videos

Ask the Finapolis.

I'm not a robot
 
Dharmendra Satpathy
Col. Sanjeev Govila (retd)
Hum Fauji Investments
 
The Finapolis' expert answers your queries on investments, taxation and personal finance. Want advice? Submit your Question above
Want to Invest
 
 

Categories

Disclaimer

The technical studies / analysis discussed here can be at odds with our fundamental views / analysis. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Consultants Limited. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor Karvy Consultants nor any person connected with any associate companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned in this document. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associate companies is required to disclose his/her individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Consultants Ltd. This report is intended for a restricted audience and we are not soliciting any action based on it. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities, or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities.

Subscribe For Free

Get the e-paper free