Turmeric futures (May contract)) are consolidating in a narrow range with a bearish bias and trying to find a definite price direction amid lack of fresh cues of export demand. If the current scenario prevails, then we may see this sideways movement to continue in the range of Rs8,000-9,000 per quintal.
Pandemic-led restrictions are likely to sour the sentiments to some extent. This can lead to a further correction of prices. In recent times, turmeric exports were the most to Bangladesh, but that also seems to be getting restricted. Bangladesh on clamped a nationwide lockdown, suspending public transport and shutting markets to combat the surge in coronavirus cases in the country, amidst demonstrations by small business owners against the move. According to a government circular issued, the directives remain in effect from 6am of April 5 till 12 midnight of April 11, 2021.
Another major concern is the overseas shipments. The freight rates have zoomed over six to ten times in a span of just three months for a 20-footer and 24-footer container respectively. Freight charges for shipments to Far East have zoomed from $200/Container to $1,200/container. This crisis of containers and exorbitant freight rates are making it difficult for us to take export orders.
Turmeric arrivals at apex Nizamabad mandi more than doubled to 40,000 bags as against 15,000 bags on March 26, while it has tripled at Basmatnagar. Sangli has reported arrivals of 16,828 bags, up 2,838 bags since a week back. The Erode market is shut from April 2 for 10 days.
Supply Shortage Boosting Jeera
Jeera (cumin) futures is holding its upside momentum since past three weeks. Recently, we saw a steep correction owing to profit boking. However, this was taken as a buying opportunity by the market participants, which made the counter take support near Rs14200 per quintal. Going ahead, looking at the robust demand and shortage in supplies, we expect the May contract to rise towards Rs15,200-15,500/quintal.
Generally during this time around 55,000-65,000 bags of arrivals are witnessed at Unjha, while now they are on the lower side. The market participants are in wait and watch mode to see if the arrivals climb higher. Overall the sentiments are positive as the yields this year are massively affected amid scorching heat.
The FISS survey, conducted by students of Dantiwada Agriculture University in Gujarat, indicated that the all India yield per hectare may be lower by 3.6 per cent at 504 kg (522 kg last year). The cultivation is 7.3 per cent lower at 9.50 lakh hectares against 10.26 lakh hectares in the previous year.
Citing climatic adversities in Gujarat and Rajasthan, the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS), in its crop projection for 2020-21, has estimated a 10.6 per cent drop in cumin seed output at 4.79 lakh tonnes against 5.35 lakh tonnes previous year.
There is shortage of quality supplies for jeera prices this year, while demand for Indian spice is robust in world markets.
Cumin production in Turkey was around 15,000 tonne last year, and the country may produce lesser this year as estimated by traders and industry persons. Similar situation is seen in Syria, where production is estimated be lower because of political instability.
The trend for Dhaniya (coriander) futures (May) is looking bullish and any dip near Rs7,200 per quintal can be considered as a buying opportunity, eyeing higher levels of Rs7,700-8,000/quintal.
Buyers from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra were reported to be active in the markets.
Millers from Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana are actively purchasing, while spice brands continued to focus of upper quality coriander. Meanwhile stockists are eyeing the moisture content in the new crop arrivals.
Local demand in the Rajasthan mandis improved, while stockists were watchful of the demand and supply situation.
New crop arrivals are improving in the state mandis, as Ramgnaj, Kota, Baran and Jaipur mandis reported maximum decline in the prices of low and medium grade spice. Old coriander crumbled under the weight of price fall in new coriander as well.
The Badami variety in Ramganj mandi was quoted at Rs5,400-5,500/quintal; Eagle was priced at Rs5,650-5,800 per quintal. At Kota mandi, Badami was quoted at Rs5,400-5,550/quintal and Eagle was priced at Rs 5,600-5,700/ quintal.
Rajasthan mandis reported arrivals of 27,900 bags, which consisted of 26,300 bags of new coriander and the rest was old coriander. Ramganj mandi received arrivals of 19,500 bags, Kota mandi - 3,500 bags, Baran mandi- 1800 bags and Jaipur mandi - 1650 bags.