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Drop In Yield Propelling Turmeric Prices

Author: Subhranil Dey/Wednesday, February 3, 2021/Categories: Exclusive

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Drop In Yield Propelling Turmeric Prices

Spot turmeric prices have been gaining week after week, extending the northward rally across major turmeric mandis in the country. Traders reveal due to climatic adversities and poor quality, turmeric growers are looking at lower yields. Further, several factors such as crop damage reports, lower yields, etc., are supporting the prices. The stockists are actively buying turmeric. The demand for turmeric during the coronavirus pandemic rose significantly as the commodity is considered to be an immunity booster.

Spot jeera (cumin) prices are at a multi-months low. Key factors including prospects of higher output, higher carryover stocks, lethargic buying interest in the spot market, higher arrivals, absence of exporters are keeping pressure on jeera prices. The price range is expected to be Rs12,000-13,700 per quintal.
Rough variety of Jeera was quoted at Rs2,070-2,140 per 20 kg. On NCDEX, Jeera was priced at Rs2,190-2,290 per 20 kg, Bombay Bold was quoted at Rs 2,465-2555 per 20 kg and Best quality was quoted at Rs2,390-2,440.
The weather conditions remain supportive and traders are keeping out of buying large quantities in wholesale markets ahead of new arrivals from next month. In days to come, the uptrend in jeera futures is expected to trade with a downside bias in the range of Rs13,700-12,000. The final figures of progressive area under cumin of Rabi 2020-21 in Gujarat as on January 25, 2021, is reported at 4,69,030 hectares as compared to 4,88,207 hectares during 2019-20 and 4,06,141 hectares in last year’s average. The importing countries and exporters of cumin are waiting for fresh arrivals. Meanwhile, the inventories of old cumin seeds are currently very high in the state of Rajasthan. The arrival of cumin is still very good at the main mandis- Jodhpur, Nagaur and Merta.

Prospects of higher output, crop damage reports, lower level buying from South India, export demand from Gulf countries, stockists are actively buying. Price range is expected to be Rs5,500-6,500 per quintal. The final figures of progressive area under coriander of Rabi 2020-21 in Gujarat as on January 25, 2021, is reported at 1,41,004 hectares as compared to 88,404 hectares during 2019-20 and 62,641 hectares in last year’s average. In some areas of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the standing crop of coriander has been affected due to extreme cold.
The crops of coriander in Madhya Pradesh, Mansoar, Nimach, Kumbhraj and Jhalawar in Rajasthan are receiving primary reports of loss. Despite the reports of minor crop loss, prices are not gaining much as crop arrivals of new coriander are picking pace mandies.
On the contrary, the downside is also seen limited as lower level demand is emerging and surging each passing day. There is no carry over stock in coriander. The trade is almost hand-to-mouth and the pipeline is empty. The new crop reported 12-14 per cent moisture content and quoting higher in Kota and in Ramganj mandi. The arrivals of old coriander surged too as prices gained due to buyer enquiries. Demand from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu spice millers has additionally helping to keep prices firm. Some overseas demand from Dubai and Gulf nations is anticipated to keep the spice price strong as well. In days to come, range bound trade can be seen in Dhaniya futures in the range of Rs5,500-6,500 per quintal.

The writer is a senior research analyst (agri commodities) at SMC Global Securities Ltd


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