A study conducted at the Princeton University shows that Facebook could lose almost 80% of its users between 2015 and 2017. Facebook, on the other hand, has debunked the study.
The researchers conducting the study analyzed user data from other social networks, tracking the patterns of users joining and leaving the networks, comparing it to the spread and dispersal of an infectious disease. “Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models,” The study relied on data mined from Google searches to track the number of visits and signups to social networking sites.
They also tracked the rise and fall of sites like MySpace.com, using it to build a predictive graph for Facebook. The graph shows the decline of MySpace users over the years, till the social network finally went defunct in 2011. The predictive graph shows a similar trend, with the number of users leaving Facebook beginning in 2013. The number of users joining the social network has also begun tapering off. The growth of social networks are virulent in fashion and taper off just as easily, with attrition rates slowly growing over the years. This study, conducted by members of the Department of Mechanics and Aerospace Engineering at Princeton shows that the attrition rate could reach its peak by 2017. Commentary on the report suggests considering the report carefully, as the department responsible for the report is not known for its reports on social network.
On the other hand, social gaming is taking off in a big way, growing to be solid competition for traditional PC and Console gaming models. Online casino games like Zynga’s poker and other games like Candy Crush Saga and turn-based online role-playing games (RPGs) are growing in popularity. Research suggests that Facebook’s gaming populace could grow to 554 million users by 2018, valued at $5.6 billion compared to traditional gaming’s worldwide value at $9.6 billion dollars with a user base of 692 million.
More games on the many app stores are being synced with Facebook to grow their user base, promising rewards and special offers. Paying consumers of social gaming also contribute to the revenues. Studies show that the profit potential of social gaming is rising, with users paying anywhere from $10-$25 per month when playing online, generating almost 25% of the total revenues. Emerging markets are also playing a big role in gaming on social networks. Countries like Brazil and Russia are currently the largest emerging markets for social gaming.