Mass movements against governance and corruption, like the recent ones by Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal, have roots in the existing socio-political environment. A combustible mix has to be present to ignite a revolt by the middle class, especially the youth, as was also the case during the JP movement (1974) and the VP Singh agitation (1987).
Only when those with aspirations and ambitions get disgusted do they take to the streets. The emergence of a charismatic leader helps.
However, what is likely to be forgotten during an analysis of such movements is the economics behind it. How economic factors such as growth, inflation and jobs influence the youth to rush in to follow the new leaders, who raise their voices against the ruling regimes?
A comparison between the three (Hazare and Kejriwal are essentially part of the same agitation) indicates that similar economic situations were prevalent in those times, which aided JP, VP and Hazare.
It all starts with the good times. The scenario that immediately precedes the birth of these revolts is one that witnesses unprecedented economic growth. Before JP’s protests, in 1969-70 and 1970-71, the annual growth rates were 5%, or above the so-called Hindu rate of growth.
Between 1980-81 and 1983-84, before VP Singh became the darling of the middle class, India witnessed two years of over 7% growth each. Despite a dip in 2008-09 to 6.7% due to the Global Financial Crisis, the economy grew by an unprecedented over 8% in the next two years (2009-10 and 2010-11).
But then the optimism disappears. Suddenly, the clouds of gloom and doom surround the economy. Those who hoped to take advantage of the boom times, especially youngsters who are likely to enter the job market soon become despondent. Their future seems uncertain, so does their prosperity.
They know that they will earn less money, i.e. if they do find employment. They become angry at some point in time, and blame the only easy target – government.
By 1974, just before the JP stir, growth had slipped to below 3%; the figure in 1984-85 was 4%; and India is likely to face two consecutive years of lower growths (2011-12 and 2012-13) for the first time since 1991. Suddenly, as was the case in 1974 and 1985, there seems to be no way out of this downturn. There are absolutely no indicators that the situation is likely to change fast. In fact, the growth this year (2012-13) as estimated by CSO may be as low as 5%.
Along with lower growth, inflation raises its ugly head. While peoples’ incomes are down or stagnant and prospective employers see lesser avenues, prices soar. The wholesale inflation rates were 30% in 1974 and 8% in 1985; in the past few years, prices have mostly seen a double-digit growth except in the recent past.
Household budgets go for a toss and the middle class is the worst hit as the poor continue to suffer and the rich somehow get along with their usual lives. Governance takes a back seat as the governments of these eras unsuccessfully grapple with the implications of a low-growth, high-inflation economy. Since there are no solutions in sight, there is a sense of a policy paralysis. And, at this stage, corruption becomes the dominating issue. Most people, especially the middle class, feel that the government is corrupt and the economy has gone out of control.
Surprisingly, these are the times when huge political scandals that engulf the rules (PMs) surface. In 1974, Indira Gandhi was perceived as utterly corrupt; by the mid 1980s, Rajiv Gandhi was subsumed by the Bofors bribery case, and; in recent times, Manmohan Singh’s role in the 2G scam and coal block allocations has been questioned by the judiciary, media, economists and the opposition parties. In each period, these scams were the biggest until then.
The situation is now ripe for the middle-class wrath and anger. It now needs a leader who can garner and channelize it into a mass revolt. JP had the support of college students from north India; VP had the urban and rural middle class behind him, and; Hazare too had hundreds of thousands of supporters, many of whom congregated at New Delhi’s Jantar Mantar.
This, in a nutshell is how economics nudges middle-class mass protests in a certain direction. It usually leads to a change in governments – Indira imposed the Emergency, and Rajiv lost the elections. We have yet to see what will happen in the 2014 general elections.